A Duration Prediction Using a Material-Based Progress Management Methodology for Construction Operation Plans

Precise and accurate prediction models for duration and cost enable contractors to improve their decision making for effective resource management in terms of sustainability in construction. Previous studies have been limited to cost-based estimations, but this study focuses on a material-based progress management method. Cost-based estimations typically used in construction, such as the earned value method, rely on comparing the planned budget with the actual cost. However, accurately planning budgets requires analysis of many factors, such as the financial status of the sectors involved. Furthermore, there is a higher possibility of changes in the budget than in the total amount of material used during construction, which is deduced from the quantity take-off from drawings and specifications. Accordingly, this study proposes a material-based progress management methodology, which was developed using different predictive analysis models (regression, neural network, and auto-regressive moving average) as well as datasets on material and labor, which can be extracted from daily work reports from contractors. A case study on actual datasets was conducted, and the results show that the proposed methodology can be efficiently used for progress management in construction.